The Macro View

Similar to 2011, this year starts with a favorable outlook. GDP is up, unemployment rates are down and the first quarter of 2012 saw improvement in leasing activity. Development has also returned in some selected areas. Industrial developers are preparing sites and building pads with the goal of constructing the building once they secure a tenant. Some have moved from the modified build-to-suit to actually going spec. The focus is on large buildings where developers can get the per foot cost of construction down. Ecommerce and consumer logistics are a big driver for new buildings.

Continue reading “What’s New – Spring 2012”

We looked at building prices over the past two years. We put in everything we could find – not adjusting for size or quality. From the beginning of 2010 until today we found prices about the same and slightly leveling down. As you can see for yourself on the above scatter chart, the average Gardena building is in the $80.00 range. It’s been dropping $5.00 or so over the period. With all the news regarding an increase in manufacturing and better employment numbers, so far these trends have not increased industrial building prices.
Continue reading “Local Industrial Prices – Gardena”

We sold the Maple Avenue property last month. The owners went to a lot of effort to make the property market-ready. This included painting both the inside and outside of the building. They installed new ceiling foil, repaired the lighting, spray washed the floors, slurry-coated and striped the parking. The single biggest expense was installing a new concrete yard. During the marketing period all the landscaping was maintained and the building was kept clean. The purpose of all this effort was to make the building look attractive and ready for a buyer to occupy. Because the building looked better than others on the market, we were able to obtain a premium. In today’s maket, making sure your building looks good and is in “move-in” condition will result in a reduced vacancy, a better tenant, and higher rent. Owners need to spend money on their property if they want to have good results.

Continue reading “Lessons Learned From Two Recent Deals”

Something new has been added to the industrial areas of Los Angeles. Campers and trailer homes are dotting the industrial streets and unfortunately they are becoming an eyesore and a nuisance. But more importantly they are driving tenants away from properties where the campers are parking. I have experienced this first hand.

Continue reading “ROGUE CAMPERS ARE DRIVING AWAY TENANTS”

I've reprinted this chart from The Next Convergence by Michael Spence, a Nobel Prize Laureate. While the topic of the book deals mostly with the globalization of economic growth, he spends some time looking at financial shocks and how that partly influences global divergence. One small section of the book looks at periodic systemic risk and how that damages investment returns.

Continue reading “Investment Returns and Systemic Shock”

Aerotropolis – The Way We’ll Live Next

By John D. Kasarda and Greg Lindsay

Farar, Straus and Giroux 2011

Continue reading “Aerotropolis – Book Review”

The first signs of a market collapse in commercial real estate began in August of 2007. Home builders started to forfeit large deposits on land deals. The rest of that year, other developers pulled out of deals until it was impossible to sell land to private developers. Many people missed that signal because User building sales were still climbing and continued until the Lehman collapse one year later.
Continue reading “SURVIVING THE MARKET BREAKDOWN – 4 YEARS LATER”

The search is on for industrial. Developers with tenants in tow are looking for industrial land. Big sites are needed for a wide range of reasons. Some users want very customized buildings. Others can’t find modern, first class buildings so they are enlisting developers to build one – if the land can be found. And many of the off-market sites are being picked over carefully. Finally, land prices have come down to a point where new construction makes economic sense.

Continue reading “THE SEARCH IS ON……”

You may have seen this article earlier in the week about Rick Perry inviting businesses in Vernon to consider relocating to Texas. It’s not the type of press California needs as it struggles to recover. Once this news item goes viral it won’t take long for other states to get the same idea to woo California business. Plus when states start looking at the economic benefits of moving companies from Vernon, the same math will apply to every city in California. Perhaps the most unsettling part of the article is that the conditions leading up to the proposed company pilfering were caused by California’s own government leaders. Firstly, greedy Vernon leaders created the attention, but the Speaker of the California Assembly, by proposing to change the governance of a very successful business community, is creating the groundswell to consider alternatives.
Continue reading “Texas Governor Woos Vernon Businesses”

Firstly, the mood was more upbeat and optimistic. Most people agree that the past few years were terrible but since the end of last year activity has increased. Nationwide, there is agreement that we have a bifurcated market with quality, institutional grade and trophy properties hitting 5% cap rates. Prices for these properties have returned to previous highs. Meanwhile, everyday buildings that most of us broker are still in the doldrums. In order to capitalize on this divergence investors are focusing on the $1MM to $5MM market where high returns exist.

Continue reading “COMING OUT ON TOP – SIOR SPRING CONFERENCE”