The current cycle is being propelled by three major conditions: Space Scarcity, Capital Markets Pressure and Rent Surge. Market dynamics are still very favorable for development and will only be disrupted if demand begins to weaken. Otherwise, strong fundamentals are the prevalent condition in most major U.S. markets.
Continue reading “Winter News 2016 – Industrial Real Estate Profits”
This is clearly an exciting market, finally. Land and buildings are trading robustly in all corners of US Industrial.. There are three reasons to explain the activity – moderate growth; dearth of recent, new construction; and lots of institutional finance. There is virtually no product available, especially for newer generation buildings. As far as capital, it’s a wave of money that wants to be invested in industrial.
Continue reading “Big Industrial Land”
We’ve been examining some of the larger ecommerce distribution companies and while it is a very notable trend in the industry, we’re finding the current leasing impact is substantially less than the publicity it currently garners. But this is still early in the migration to a new distribution platform and a lack of building supply is holding back ecommerce adoption especially in infill markets. Ecommerce users generally want a lot of loading, high clearances, and large employee parking lots. These are not buildings typically found on the market and in this period of extreme shortage, there is no incentive for developers to develop anything “out of the box”. However, those few developers who have been willing to take the risk and build ecommerce buildings on spec have been richly rewarded.
Continue reading “The Challenge of Ecommerce Real Estate”
The Cluster Mapping Project (CMP) was pioneered by Michael E Porter of Harvard University. He is just as well known for his works on Competitive Advantage. His work is a necessary foundation for US Industry and business organizations. I reprint his Value Chain diagram below for company diagnostics, which has been repurposed to examine the competitiveness of regions. To understand the implications of location and clustering, you can read an article Professor Porter published in 1995 about the strategic location of inner cities which is just as relevant today.
Continue reading “Looking at US Industrial with the US Cluster Mapping Project”
Tenants have underappreciated power especially in cases of new development and investment projects. Most tenants don’t realize their own worth because they are rarely in the market, don’t experience the development cycle and are oriented towards functionality. Conversely, lease terms and tenant credit are essential to the developer. The capital impact of the lease is well understood by the developer but is often neglected by the tenant.
Continue reading “Tenant Power”
We are starting an extremely interesting and confusing period as redevelopment agencies (RDAs) come to an end. Firstly, RDAs were a powerful force in every city’s arsenal. They employed large staffs and had enormous budgets. A lot of the built commercial world is attributable to redevelopment through direct land contribution, infrastructure, subsidies, guarantees, loans or other physical or financial contributions. RDAs created a lot of very good development that would not have otherwise been built. High quality, low income housing units were developed. Many private and capable developers profited.
Continue reading “Questions About The End of California Redevelopment”
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Both brokers and investors tout the strengths of investing in markets with a vibrant harbor and airport. This has been a pronounced strategy from at least 1997 when container imports began increasing beyond incremental growth. Many institutional investors have dubbed this the Gateway Strategy. But grand proclamations like these normally lead to increased competition amongst buyers and lower returns. If history is any lesson, the money was made by the first round Buyers who purchased these distribution buildings at distress. It was the following group who used port dynamics to justify their high purchases and are now sitting with vacant and poorly leased properties at rents vastly below proforma. In retrospect, it was the deal strategy that made investors money. Being located by the port was secondary.
Continue reading “The Port Strategy Fallacy – It’s the Deal That Counts.”
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More so than ever before, cities are vying for companies that create jobs. There’s the policy aspect that favors clean and green jobs. Then there’s the backroom bargaining that favors successful outcomes. Companies that can offer employment would do well to study some of the recent newsworthy examples. They include the failed attempt by Los Angeles to attract AnseldoBreda, local jostling to snare Tesla Motors, competition for Eli Broad’s museum, Los Angeles Stadium in the City of Industry, and the smaller manufacturing deals coming through the CRA of Los Angeles. Each one is fairly lucrative to the company and does not necessarily fit any set model. They are similar to the large retailers, like Costco or Walmart, who were able to negotiate attractive packages for redevelopment funds, property tax breaks, and property development benefits. I haven’t seen any studies if these retail developments met city economic expectations, but certainly the recent raise in sales tax makes up any marginal differences. It pays to understand the multitude of incentives available from local, state and national agencies.
Continue reading “Economic Development in Greater Los Angeles”